🧭 Analysis

Olive and Olive Oil Analysis

Olive oil price trends, the production and consumption balance, harvest economics: analyses that read the sector's figures against their sources.

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The pieces in this section start from figures. The source of every table and chart is given in the text; where data is missing we say so rather than estimating it.

Article The same olive, six times the price: the quiet advantage of table olives A kilo of olives is 45.15 TL if it goes to oil and 270 TL as large black table fruit. How much of that gap is added value and how much is cost — and why do table olives carry Türkiye's exports?

Article Tree to shelf: the olive oil value chain in six stops 27,090 TL a decare, 225.75 TL of fruit in a kilo of oil, 249.44 TL on the exchange, €4.82 in the world, $3.17 exported — and the one stop we cannot measure: the shelf.

Article Fourth in the world with 25 registrations — but what are they doing? Türkiye sits fourth in the world with 25 olive oil GIs, holding a seventh of the global total. Yet an export unit value of $3.17/kg says the product is still priced as a commodity.

Article Rain in Andalusia, prices in Aydın: how Spain's drought set the price in Türkiye Spain makes 40% of the world's olive oil. Its output halved in 2022/23 and Türkiye's euro price went from €2.70 to €6.95; when Spain recovered it fell 29%. The peak came when stocks ran out, not when production fell.

Article Felling an olive grove: the arithmetic of a ten-year decision Replacing a cleared decare of olives with saplings costs 158,476 lira in lost income over ten years — 58% of a decade's earnings. A reproducible calculation with its assumptions on the table.

Article Did olive oil go up 13.5 times, or 1.6 times? Up 13.5 times in lira, 1.6 times in euros. The same 1,257 exchange registrations, each converted at its own day's ECB rate. Most of the rise is currency, not oil — and in hard currency the price has fallen 31% since 2024.

Article Two thirds of our exports are table olives: the $260 million picture In 2025-2026, 66% of exports were table olives and 27% olive oil, with oil down 62% by value. Average unit value $3.17/kg against a domestic price of $5.59/kg. The added value sits inside the packaging.

Article Early harvest: expensive or valuable? The arithmetic of yield Below 18% yield the raw material costs more than the bulk price. Early-harvest oil needs a 43% premium to break even, which is why it loses money in bulk and makes sense only for branded sales.

Article Exchange volume is not the harvest: what the 2023 record actually recorded 10,597 tonnes registered in 2023, down to 3,227 the next season. A harvest collapse, or a change of channel? Eight seasons of volume and price data cannot tell the two apart, and that needs saying.

Article Is Turkish olive oil cheap? Fourteen months against Europe In thirteen of fourteen months Turkish bulk extra virgin sits above Spain. A euro-denominated comparison built from exchange registrations, EU producer prices and ECB rates.

Article From olive to oil: the price gap, 2019-2026 Between 80% and 108% of the price paid for a kilogram of olive oil is the cost of the fruit alone. Seven years of the gap between olive and oil prices, from 1,377 registered exchange transactions.