How did olive oil prices open the 2026/27 season?
The first exchange registrations of October 2026 compared with the same weeks of the previous five seasons, in lira and euros: Edremit extra virgin is up 4% in lira and down 8% in euros; Spanish producer prices fell 20% in a year. The opening is thin, and Spain is the only major producer with an official supply figure.
On Spain's official calendar, the 2026/27 olive oil season began on 1 October. In Turkey, the commodity exchanges registered just three olive oil transactions in the first week of October. This article compares those records with the same weeks of the previous five seasons, in lira and in euros, and then looks at how Mediterranean supply figures frame the opening.
The short answer: the lira price is roughly where it was a year ago, the euro price is clearly lower. European producer prices have also fallen by a fifth in a year. But the Turkish opening is very thin: only 14.6 tonnes of extra virgin oil were registered up to 8 October.
The first registrations of October: which exchange, which product?
Our exchange series (TOBB registration records, latest entry 8 October 2026) shows these transactions in the first eight days of October:
| Date | Exchange | Product | Average TRY/kg | Quantity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 Oct | Edremit | Extra virgin olive oil | 285.00 | 1,754 kg |
| 7 Oct | Nazilli | Extra virgin olive oil | 210.00 | 1,235 kg |
| 8 Oct | Nazilli | Extra virgin olive oil | 200.46 | 11,627 kg |
| 7 Oct | Edremit | Green table olives (hususi) | 140.00 | 3,571 kg |
There is no crude (unclassified) olive oil registration in October yet; the latest ones in the series are Nazilli on 25 September (220.00 TRY/kg) and Aydın on 22 September (169.92 TRY/kg). Aydın has no extra virgin trade in October either. Behind Nazilli's 8 October average lie trades ranging from 135.50 to 231.00 TRY/kg; why a single average can mislead is explained in how to read olive oil exchange prices.
One more caveat: a registration does not say whether the oil changing hands in October comes from the new harvest or from last season's stock.
Compared with the same weeks of earlier seasons
We took the quantity-weighted average of extra virgin registrations between 1 and 14 October each year. Because lira inflation distorts comparisons across years, each trade was converted to euros at the European Central Bank (ECB) EUR/TRY reference rate of its own day. The method is the same as in our article measuring the lira-euro gap.
| Year | Edremit TRY/kg | Edremit €/kg | Aydın €/kg | All exchanges €/kg | Total quantity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 36.01 | 3.49 | 2.53 | 2.53 | 355.0 t |
| 2022 | 79.12 | 4.34 | 3.66 | 3.66 | 322.8 t |
| 2023 | 206.12 | 7.03 | 6.30 | 6.31 | 103.0 t |
| 2024 | 265.26 | 7.05 | 6.21 | 6.37 | 66.9 t |
| 2025 | 273.55 | 5.64 | 4.76 | 4.76 | 221.3 t |
| 2026 | 285.00 | 5.18 | — | 3.84 | 14.6 t |
The 2026 row covers 1-8 October. Edremit's October volume is small every year (1-12 tonnes). The "all exchanges" column is dominated by Aydın in earlier years and by Nazilli in 2026; since the mix of exchanges changed, this column should not be read on its own.
Staying with one exchange makes the picture clear: in Edremit, extra virgin rose 4.2% in lira over the year (from 273.55 to 285.00) and fell 8.2% in euros (from 5.64 to 5.18). The difference is the exchange rate: according to the ECB, on 7 October the euro bought 13% more lira than on the same day a year earlier. Edremit's euro price is about 27% below the 7.05 € of 2024, so in euro terms the opening continues a line that has been falling for two seasons.
Nazilli opened 2026 at 3.66 €/kg; there were no extra virgin registrations there in earlier Octobers, so no comparison is possible.
Opening volume: thin, but not unusual
The extra virgin quantity registered between 1 and 8 October swings widely from year to year: 214.9 tonnes in 2021, 7.2 tonnes in 2024, 181.2 tonnes in 2025, 14.6 tonnes in 2026. We showed in a separate article that exchange volume does not measure the harvest; in a week of a few trades that warning applies even more.
Europe in the same weeks
European Commission weekly producer prices, extra virgin (acidity up to 0.8%):
| Country | Week of 5 Oct 2025 | Week of 4 Oct 2026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spain | 4.27 | 3.43 | −19.6% |
| Portugal | 4.30 | 3.45 | −19.8% |
| Italy | 9.40 | 4.64 | −50.6% |
Turkey's premium over Spain varies by exchange: Edremit's 5.18 € is 51% above Spain, Nazilli's 3.66 € is 7% above. The mixed average of the exchanges was 11% above Spain last year and 12% above this year. Turkey's relative position has not changed in a year; both sides moved down together. We covered the longer history of this premium in our Turkey-Europe comparison.
How does the supply side frame the opening?
Spain. According to the Ministry of Agriculture, Fisheries and Food's press note of 1 October 2026, the first official estimate (aforo) for 2026/27 is 1,602,596 tonnes of olive oil, 23% above the previous season. The ministry says the figure is preliminary and may change with oil yields in rain-fed groves affected by summer heat. Details are in our aforo article; we also reported that the decision on withdrawing oil from the market was left to the first half of November.
Greece. There is no official estimate yet; the figure cited by industry bodies ranges from 280,000 to 330,000 tonnes, with 300,000 tonnes the most discussed scenario. In Laconia the season's first lot sold at a cooperative auction for 5.95 €/kg; last season's first lot fetched 7.85 € (details).
Tunisia. The National Chamber of Olive Producers expects 300,000 tonnes for 2026/27, down 40% from the previous season's 500,000 tonnes. This is a professional projection; an official season estimate has not yet appeared in the sources we could reach (Tunisia article).
Turkey. The latest official figure is the 310,000 tonnes in the National Olive and Olive Oil Council's 2025/26 assessment. The 500-600 thousand tonnes discussed by the industry for 2026/27 is still an expectation; the official assessment committee usually reports in November (details).
Adding it up: against the 1,301,761 tonnes reported for 2025/26 by Spain's Olive Oil Information and Control Agency (AICA), Spain's increase is about 300,000 tonnes; Tunisia's expected 200,000-tonne decline is two thirds of that. Prices did not wait for the aforo: in the European Commission series, Spanish extra virgin was already at 3.49 €/kg in the week of 6 September.
From October to December: where did prices go within the season?
To see how much the opening price tells about the season, we compared each season's October average with the December average of the same year (all exchanges, quantity-weighted).
| Season | Extra virgin, TRY | Extra virgin, € | Crude oil, TRY | Crude oil, € |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020/21 | +36% | +34% | +17% | +16% |
| 2021/22 | +41% | 0% | +20% | −16% |
| 2022/23 | +19% | +9% | +15% | +6% |
| 2023/24 | +32% | +21% | +3% | −5% |
| 2024/25 | −2% | 0% | −26% | −25% |
| 2025/26 | +10% | +7% | −4% | −7% |
2019/20 is excluded: only 3.1 tonnes of extra virgin were registered that October.
There is no fixed direction across six seasons. In lira, extra virgin rose in five seasons, but much of that was the exchange rate: in euros it stood still in two seasons and rose in four. Crude oil in euros rose in three seasons and fell in three. Over the same period in Spain, extra virgin rose 7% from 5 October to 7 December 2025. The opening shows the level a season starts from, not its direction.
By the numbers
| Indicator | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Edremit extra virgin, 7 Oct 2026 | 285.00 TRY/kg | TOBB exchange registration |
| Edremit extra virgin, in euros | 5.18 €/kg | Registration + ECB rate |
| Year-on-year change in euros (Edremit) | −8.2% | First two weeks of October |
| Extra virgin registered 1-8 Oct | 14.6 t | TOBB exchange registrations |
| Spain extra virgin, week of 4 Oct | 3.43 €/kg | European Commission |
| Spain, year-on-year change | −19.6% | European Commission |
| Spain 2026/27 aforo | 1.6 million t | Spanish Ministry of Agriculture, 1 Oct 2026 |
| Tunisia 2026/27 expectation | 300,000 t | National Chamber of Olive Producers |
In short
- The first registrations of October 2026 are in Edremit and Nazilli, extra virgin only; there is no October record yet for crude oil or for Aydın.
- The lira price is at last year's level, the euro price is 8% lower in Edremit; the difference comes from the exchange rate.
- European producer prices fell by a fifth in Spain and Portugal and by half in Italy; Turkey's premium over Spain did not change.
- On the supply side, Spain is the only major producer with an official figure (+23%); the Greek and Tunisian figures are industry estimates.
- In the past six seasons the October price did not predict December's direction. The weekly picture is in our price bulletins.
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