Tunisia's output falls from 500,000 to 300,000 tonnes — revenue may hold

When we covered Tunisia's 368,000-tonne export season, we noted that an unusually large crop stood behind that volume. That season has now closed. Najeh Saïdi Hamed, president of Tunisia's National Chamber of Olive Producers, gave the new season's forecast to Mosaique FM: 300,000 tonnes.

The number

For scale: Tunisia exported 368,000 tonnes in the first nine months of last season. Exports take more than three quarters of production — Tunisia is not a country that consumes what it makes, it is a country that sells it. A 200,000-tonne drop in output comes straight out of exportable volume.

The cause is the cycle, not drought

Hamed attributes the decline to alternate bearing: an olive tree that carries a heavy crop follows it with a light year while it recovers. This is not an external shock like disease or drought; it is the tree's own rhythm.

The distinction has a practical consequence. A drought-driven fall can persist into the following year; a cycle-driven fall is normally followed by a recovery. This is the bottom of a swing, not a permanent loss.

The real news is in the second sentence

Hamed's second statement matters more than the first: while output falls 40%, revenue is expected to match last season, because international prices are higher.

This is the basic mechanism of the olive oil market, and it works in reverse too: a big crop does not rescue income. That is precisely what Türkiye experienced last season — volume rose while export value fell.

Tunisia's expectation is the same equation read from the other direction: volume falls, unit price rises, total revenue holds. What reaches the grower's pocket depends, in both cases, on how much price compensates for volume.

⚠ This is an expectation, not a guarantee. The assumption that prices will rise depends on the rest of the Mediterranean not producing a large crop at the same time.

What it means for Türkiye

1. Our most direct bulk competitor is shrinking. Roughly 86% of Tunisia's exports are bulk. Turkish exporters compete for the same tanks, not the same shelves: the bulk market feeding Spanish and Italian bottlers. Removing 200,000 tonnes of supply from that market opens room for Turkish oil.

2. The ground under the Andalusian dispute is shifting. We covered Andalusia's objection to North African imports last week; Tunisia was the main source of the supply being complained about. That supply is now contracting. The grounds for a protection measure weaken — though the request itself, once set in motion as a regulatory process, may continue.

3. Algeria does not fill the gap. Algeria's record expectation of 150,000 tonnes sounds large but is smaller than the 200,000 tonnes Tunisia is losing, and Algeria consumes most of its output domestically. Across North Africa, supply is falling on net.

Reading with care

⚠ 300,000 tonnes is a forecast made before harvest. In olives, pre-harvest estimates and final figures diverge widely; we have written separately about why mistaking exchange volume for the harvest misleads — the same caution applies to forecasts.

⚠ The figure is olive oil, not olives. Table olives are a separate account.

⚠ The statement comes from a trade chamber president, not a statistical agency. End-of-season figures from ONAGRI, Tunisia's official agricultural observatory, may differ; last season's export data came from ONAGRI.